第二次プーチン政権のアジア・太平洋政策

―米中ロ大国間関係の変化の観点から―

抄録

This article explains the opportunities and problems of Russia’s foreign policy towards the Asia-Pacific region (APR) under Putin’s third presidency. On 7 May 2012, president Putin signed Executive Orders for “implementing plans for developing Armed Forces and modernizing military-industrial complex” and “measures to implement foreign policy.” The first section of this article analyzes these documents from the viewpoint of Russia’s policy towards the Asia-Pacific region and points out the need for paying attention to the changes in the security environment both in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia during the past 12 years, which have been ignored in previous research on the background of Russia’s assertive Asia policy. The above two documents show the significant changes in the Russia’s Asia-Pacific as follows. Firstly, the former document announces Moscow’s intention to develop the Navy, first and foremost in the Arctic areas and in Russia’s Far East with the aim of protecting the Russian Federation’s strategic interests. Secondly, the latter documents showed the national interests in deepening an equal, trust-based partnership and strategic cooperation with China, strategic partnerships with India and Vietnam, and developing mutual beneficial relations with America’s traditional allies, that is Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.
Given those changes, the second section of this article strives to demonstrate the qualitative changes in the relations among three major powers (the U.S., China and Russia) in the Asia-Pacific region by focusing on the trade balance, demand-supply situation of energy resources, and security issues. Finally, the third section discusses how Russia’s foreign policy towards APR will be affected by China’s advancement to the Arctic sea and the South China Sea and also the U.S. military shift to APR.
In conclusion, this paper makes three points. First, unlike the old triangular relations in the Cold War era that were characterized by predominance of military capacity, both the areas of common interests and conflicts were diversified from trade, energy resources to traditional and non-traditional security issues in today’s U.S.-China-Russia relations. Second, China’s advancement to the Arctic sea through Sea of Japan has the potential to provoke the military competition between Russia and China, however this situation may offer an opportunity to deepen the cooperation between Russia and the U.S. in maritime security. Third, this article points out that the heightening tension between the U.S. and China as well as China and Vietnam in the South China Sea provides Russia with an opportunity to engage in regional affairs, for example, participation in the East Asia Summit. However, strategic partnership both with China and Vietnam complicates Russia’s attitudes towards Vietnam.