世界経済の変動とソ連・ロシア経済

抄録

The present study demonstrates theoretical significance of system changes in the Soviet/Russian economy under the globalization, and reexamines its research changes. Through the historical evolution and the research development, rich experiences in the Soviet/Russia give us basis for an investigation of the economic system, particularly market and the state.

Russia radically liberalized in transition and its liberalization process synchronized neo-liberal changes of the world after 1970s, which made the contemporary capitalism “normalized” one with the unequal society. In practice, Russia drastically changed its economic system after the transformation in 1992, and a newly built market looked to function completely, based on the liberal economic institutions. The Russian market, however, has shown its specificities strikingly different from the standard model of the developed market. The concepts such as “the emerging market” and “the state capitalism” also testify that Russia has different market structure and different market actors. The Soviet/Russian economy has fluctuated on “the imported growth model” by petroleum and cheap money as well as an economic cycle, which were caused by a long-term Soviet/Russian structure.

Economics of transition in Russia gives clues to analyze the fundamental determinants in the Soviet/Russian economic crisis. The following determinants work in close operation. First of all, in spite of liberal policy measures, the economic growth cannot establish normal markets and cannot improve market quality. Market quality can be defined as a measure of efficiency in allocation and fairness in pricing based on market infrastructure. The Russian market building caused misuse of institutions and rules and it lost the law enforcement. The informal institutions substituted for the formal institutions, and even though they diminished risks and transaction costs under a malfunction of market infrastructure, market quality has got worsened. The state’s strong control over the economic actors also accelerated deterioration of market quality. Secondly, under the strong ideology of neoliberalism, the state excessively retreated from the economy in transition. The state lost the fundamental capability and reliable policy making, and state quality also deteriorated. While the rentier state expanded tax revenues and state assets with a favorable oil price, Russia could not build the efficient tax state. Tax haven and offshore have broken the normal financial flow. The state institutions destabilized and the state changed into the authoritarian regime. Both market and state quality have become risk factors.

The evolution of markets and state are based on geopolitics, international environments, and endogenous socio-economic conditions. The institutional evolution certifies the above market and state barriers. On the one hand, institutions liberalized based on the global standards. On the other hand, the institutions that emerged from the transition did not converge into the “normal”, and follow a path the Soviet/Russia have shaped. The cultural inertia and legacies as a relationship become a determinant of institutional arrangement, and institutions change in ‘path-dependent’ ways. The view on the institutional change certifies continuous evolution of institutions in the Soviet/Russia and difficulties for improving quality of market and state under the politicized regime.