ポーランド経済とEUファンド

抄録

Poland has shown strong economic growth for 20 years since 1995, and is also the only EU country that achieved positive GDP growth in 2009 during the global recession.

Several studies have looked at the causes of this good economic performance, and attribute it to such as the effective utilization of EU Funds, stimulus by macroeconomic policy, devaluation of Polish currency, prudential control or regulation in the financial system and so forth.

Poland is a country well favored with foreign aid both before and after its accession to the EU from international institutions including the EU. When the focus is given to EU Funds after joining the EU on May 1, 2004, it is easy to understand that such funds play an important role as key driver of economic growth in Poland.

Poland enjoys a comparatively big allocation of EU Funds, indeed it was the top recipient of funds when the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) was in effect (2007–2013). The financial transfer of EU Funds is 3.7 times greater than the Polish contribution to the EU, and this amounts to 4% of Polish overall GDP (3% by Structural Fund and 1% by Common Agricultural Policy (so called CAP)) according to 2013 statistics. Furthermore the ratio of EU Funds to the governmental budget is 10-20%. The G20 members at the London Summit 2009 agreed to a financial stimulus of around 3% of GDP to mitigate the global recession. Thus the 4% of GDP from EU Funds should contribute greatly to Polish GDP growth.

EU funds can be classified by 2 main categories, one is Structural Funds and the other is CAP payments mentioned above. Structural Funds are used to support the modernization of infrastructures by member states or between member states. Therefore it can be utilized as fiscal investment to promote GDP growth. Most CAP payments are allocated to farmers as direct-aid payments, which may result in an expansion of domestic demand (as household consumption). In fact, GDP ratio of the construction industry in Poland is 2% higher than in other EU member states, and the consumption propensity is also 5% higher.

EU Funds are costless financial grants from the EU without any fiscal burden falling on the Polish government. Hence there is no serious concern about crowding-out in the financial market, nor about rising interest rates of government bonds. EU Funds are, therefore, a very effective tool for Polish authorities to control economic growth. As they fully understand its function and importance in their national economy, Poland had tried as much allocation of EU Funds as possible under the current MFF regime.

In the recent economic forecast by the EU, Poland is expected to continue its good economic performance in the coming years mainly due to robust domestic demand. But there is fear that the Polish economy may fall into the Middle-income trap over the long-term, if they continue to depend on EU Funds for the progress of their economy.