Impact of Fertilizer Price and Subsidy on the Global Wheat Market

Abstract

This study examined how an increase in fertilizer prices will affect the global wheat market and how fertilizer subsidy program will mitigate that impact by developing a partial equilibrium model. All scenarios demonstrated that increasing fertilizer prices drove global wheat prices higher and increased price volatility from a three-year average for 2019-2021 to 2040. Among the countries covered by this model, India and Ukraine are the most vulnerable wheat-producing countries affected by fertilizer price increases. The simulation scenario showed that a fertilizer subsidy program in India will contribute to stabilizing wheat price in the long term, considering the current fertilizer price increase trend. This study concludes that Ukraine will be the most vulnerable country affected by input price change, as well as India. Therefore, to prevent international wheat price increase and volatility, international cooperation is urgently required for Ukraine in mitigating the fertilizer price increase, as well as other input price increases.