Study of Junior High School Students’ Understanding about Meaning of Probability from a Viewpoint of Modelling

Abstract

　　The purpose of this study is to clarify a difficulty of junior high school students’ understanding and a possible form for teaching about meaning of probability from more various viewpoints based on modelling than the relation between statistical probability and mathematical probability.

　　As a result, first, we constructed a new framework by putting Pfannkuch & Ziedins’s (2014) framework and Ikarashi & Miyakawa’s (2013) it. Second, we pointed out that a factor of the difficulty was that many students cannot relate not randomizer in physical world to model probability in mathematical world well which previous studies have pointed out, but randomizer in hypothetical world to model probability in mathematical world well. Third, we pointed out that probability teaching which National Institute for Educational Policy Research (2015) proposed has not really contributed to students’ understanding about meaning of probability. Fourth, we identified two activities that should be set in teaching about meaning of probability. One is to make students aware of hypothetical world, and the other is to make students’ perception about probability coming and going among three worlds (physical world, hypothetical world, and mathematical world).