Journal of Atherosclerosis and Thrombosis
Online ISSN : 1880-3873
Print ISSN : 1340-3478
ISSN-L : 1340-3478

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Predictors of Stroke Outcome Extracted from Multivariate Linear Discriminant Analysis or Neural Network Analysis
Tomohisa NezuNaohisa HosomiKazumasa YoshimuraDaisuke KuzumeHiroyuki NaitoShiro AokiYuko MorimotoMasato KinboshiTakeshi YoshidaYuji ShigaNaoto KinoshitaAkira FuruiGenta TabuchiHiroki UenoToshio TsujiHirofumi Maruyama
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JOURNAL OPEN ACCESS Advance online publication

Article ID: 59642


Aim: The prediction of functional outcome is essential in the management of acute ischemic stroke patients. We aimed to explore the various prognostic factors with multivariate linear discriminant analysis or neural network analysis and evaluate the associations between candidate factors, baseline characteristics, and outcome.

Methods: Acute ischemic stroke patients (n=1,916) with premorbid modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores of 0–2 were analyzed. The prediction models with multivariate linear discriminant analysis (quantification theory type II) and neural network analysis (log-linearized Gaussian mixture network) were used to predict poor functional outcome (mRS 3–6 at 3 months) with various prognostic factors added to age, sex, and initial neurological severity at admission.

Results: Both models revealed that several nutritional statuses and serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP) levels at admission improved the predictive ability. Of the 1,484 patients without missing data, 560 patients (37.7%) had poor outcomes. The patients with poor outcomes had higher ALP levels than those without (294.3±259.5 vs. 246.3±92.5 U/l, P<0.001). Multivariable logistic analyses revealed that higher ALP levels (1-SD increase) were independently associated with poor stroke outcomes after adjusting for several confounding factors, including the neurological severity, malnutrition status, and inflammation (odds ratio 1.21, 95% confidence interval 1.02– 1.49). Several nutritional indicators extracted from prediction models were also associated with poor outcome.

Conclusion: Both the multivariate linear discriminant and neural network analyses identified the same indicators, such as nutritional status and serum ALP levels. These indicators were independently associated with functional stroke outcome.

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