Detection of the Relationship between the Multi-Dimensional Data Sets of Serially Measured Blood Pressure and the Future Risk of Death in Healthy Elderly Japanese Population

抄録

Aims: Whether the multi-dimensional data of serially measured blood pressure contains information for predicting the future risk of death in elderly individuals in nursing homes is unclear.

Methods: Of the elderly individuals staying in a nursing home, 19,740 and 40,055 individuals with serially measured blood pressure from day 1 to 365 (for AI-long) and 1 to 90 (for AI-short) along with the death information at day 366 to 730 and 91-365 were included. The neural network-based artificial intelligence (AI) was applied to find the relationship between BP time-series and the future risks of death in both populations.

Results: AI-long found a significant relationship between the serially measured BP from day 1 to day 365 days and the risk of death occurring 366-730 days with c-statistics of 0.57 (95% CI: 0.51-0.63). AI-short also found a significant relationship between the serially measured BP from day 1 to day 90 and the rate of death occurring 91-365 days with c-statistics of 0.58 (95%CI: 0.52-0.63).

Conclusion: Our results suggest that neural network-based AI could find the hidden subtle relationship between multi-dimensional data of serially measured BP and the future risk of death in apparently healthy elderly Japanese individuals under nursing care.