Proposal of Typhoon Roof Damage Prediction Method Using Damage Probability Model Based on the Weakest Link Model

Abstract

In this study, we estimated the damage probability for each fixed range mesh in the disaster area using the typhoon building damage probability model using the Weibull distribution, and compared it with the presence or absence of damage to examine the usefulness of the proposed model. As a result of constructing a model using the building area ratio instead of the housing density proposed in the past, the damage probability obtained from the data and the estimated damage probability were almost the same. In addition, as a result of calculating the estimated damage probability using the created model and comparing it with the presence or absence of damage, the two showed a good correspondence relationship. Therefore, this model is useful for predicting strong wind damage on building roofs.