階層非線形モデルによる識字能力開発ニーズ・アセスメント

——階層的な環境因子を考慮したニーズ・アセスメント・モデルの可能性——

抄録

After importance of primary education was internationally agreed at the World Educational Conference in 1990, primary school enrolment was drastically increased in many developing nations. However, the children called “last 10%,” who are left behind after 90% school enrolment was achieved, are assumed to live particularly in rural area. Thus, policy analysis today is expected to assess their specific needs, and in order to analyze the effects from different life environments surrounding each individual, the methodology for hierarchical analysis is needed. However, such methodology is not yet generalized in the field of education policy analysis in developing countries. Therefore, it is urgently necessary to accumulate the case studies of hierarchical models. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the new methodology of hierarchical analysis into this field of study by proposing a needs assessment model for Tanzanian pupil's literacy development, with a special attention to hierarchical environmental factors. This study hypothesizes that each individual child lives under two different hierarchical environments, “educational environment at individual level” and “public life environment at district level,” and analyzes how these hierarchical environmental factors affect on Tanzanian children's literacy development, by using Hierarchical Generalized Linear Modeling.