行動計量学
Online ISSN : 1880-4705
Print ISSN : 0385-5481
ISSN-L : 0385-5481
特集 林知己夫生誕百年記念
電話調査導入や選挙制度改変による選挙予測モデルの変遷
—林知己夫の予測の考え方と今後の発展—
松田 映二
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2018 年 45 巻 2 号 p. 95-106

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In the 1950s, Chikio Hayashi developed an election prediction model for Japan by using sampling theory and face-to-face surveys. This model is built on the following steps: (1) defining the support rate for each candidate; (2) estimating the ratio of votes garnered by each candidate; (3) using Hayashi’s quantification method type 1 and cor- recting the difference between the value estimated from the third order regression and the ratio of votes; and (4) calculating the winning probability for each candidate by us- ing quantification method type 2 or the margin of error for the estimated ratio of votes. In the 1990s, the telephone replaced the face-to-face survey mode, providing changes to Hayashi’s election prediction model. We discuss the reasons for these improvements.

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