抄録
Suppose we have only40places to be filled in a department, and there are N candidates writing a two stage selection entrance examination to an university. We wish to determine a reasonable number m such that40×m=n, where N-n is the number of candidates failing the first stage. In this paper, this number m is termed the multiplier. Then, we evaluate the group-size of candidates who could not pass the examination in practice, but would pass it provided that the preliminary selection would not be done. Under the normality assumption on the marks, we give a method which estimates the probability corresponding to the group-size from censored data, and propose a method to decide the reasonable multiplier in the preliminary examination. Simulation is carried out for the combination of some parameters using random numbers and discussion is made on the results. Robustness on the normality and the influence of estimating parameters are also discussed briefly.
