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Journal of Epidemiology
Vol. 24 (2014) No. 3 P 239-249

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http://doi.org/10.2188/jea.JE20130117

Original Article

Objectives: To explore determinants of change in pediatrician supply in Japan, and examine impacts of a 2004 reform of postgraduate medical education on pediatricians’ practice location choice.
Methods: Data were compiled from secondary data sources. The dependent variable was the change in the number of pediatricians at the municipality (“secondary tier of medical care” [STM]) level. To analyze the determinants of pediatrician location choices, we considered the following predictors: initial ratio of pediatricians per 1000 children under five years of age (pediatrician density) and under-5 mortality as measures of local area need, as well as measures of residential quality. Ordinary least-squares regression models were used to estimate the associations. A coefficient equality test was performed to examine differences in predictors before and after 2004. Basic comparisons of pediatrician coverage in the top and bottom 10% of STMs were conducted to assess inequality in pediatrician supply.
Results: Increased supply was inversely associated with baseline pediatrician density both in the pre-period and post-period. Estimated impact of pediatrician density declined over time (P = 0.026), while opposite trends were observed for measures of residential quality. More specifically, urban centers and the SES composite index were positively associated with pediatrician supply for the post-period, but no such associations were found for the pre-period. Inequality in pediatrician distribution increased substantially after the reform, with the best-served 10% of communities benefitting from five times the pediatrician coverage compared to the least-served 10%.
Conclusions: Residential quality increasingly became a function of location preference rather than public health needs after the reform. New placement schemes should be developed to achieve more equity in access to pediatric care.

Copyright © 2014 Rie Sakai et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

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