Journal of Epidemiology
Online ISSN : 1349-9092
Print ISSN : 0917-5040
ISSN-L : 0917-5040
Original Article
The Prospective Association Between Plasma Concentrations of Cellular Growth Factors and Risk of Heart Failure Mortality in Japanese Population
Ehab S EshakKoutatsu MaruyamaHiroyasu IsoAkiko Tamakoshi
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Supplementary material

2019 Volume 29 Issue 3 Pages 104-109


Background: Limited evidence is available on the association of insulin-like growth factors (IGFs) and risk of heart failure in population-based samples. We investigated whether serum IGFs concentrations can predict mortality from heart failure.

Methods: We conducted a nested case-control study of 39,242 subjects aged 40–79 years who participated in the JACC study, a large Japanese prospective cohort study; participants provided serum samples and were followed up for 9 years. In heart failure cases and age-, sex-, community-, and year of blood withdrawal-matched controls, we measured serum concentrations of IGF-I, IGF-II, and IGF binding protein 3 (IGFBP3) and transforming growth factor (TGF-β1).

Results: During the follow-up, there were 88 heart failure deaths (44 men and 44 women). Each increment of 1 standard deviation [SD] of IGF-II (120.0 ng/mL in women and 143.7 ng/mL in men) was associated with a 47% reduced risk of mortality from heart failure; multivariable odds ratio was 0.53 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.30–0.94, P-trend = 0.03). The multivariable odds ratio in the highest quartile of IGFBP3 serum concentrations (≥3.29 µg/mL in women and ≥3.31 µg/mL in men) compared with the lowest (<2.11 µg/mL in women and <2.56 µg/mL in men) was 0.24 (95% CI, 0.05–1.11; P-trend = 0.12). No association was found between serum concentrations of IGF-I or TGF-β1 and risk of heart failure.

Conclusions: Higher serum concentrations of IGF-II were associated with lower mortality from heart failure, which might suggest a possible role of IGF-II in the occurrence or prognosis of heart failure.

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© 2018 Ehab S Eshak et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
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