Journal of Epidemiology
Online ISSN : 1349-9092
Print ISSN : 0917-5040
ISSN-L : 0917-5040

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Cumulative Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in a Working Population: The Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study
Huanhuan HuTohru NakagawaHiroko OkazakiChihiro NishiuraTeppei ImaiToshiaki MiyamotoNaoko SasakiMakoto YamamotoTaizo MurakamiTakeshi KochiMasafumi EguchiKentaro TomitaSatsue NagahamaKeisuke KuwaharaIsamu KabeTetsuya MizoueSeitaro Dohi
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JOURNAL OPEN ACCESS Advance online publication
Supplementary material

Article ID: JE20170093


Background: We estimated the cumulative risk of type 2 diabetes from age 30 to 65 years in a large working population in Japan.

Methods: We used data from the Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study. Participants (46,065 men and 7,763 women) were aged 30–59 years, free of diabetes at baseline, and followed up for a maximum of 7 years. Incident type 2 diabetes was defined based on fasting and casual glucose, glycated hemoglobin, and current medical treatment for type 2 diabetes. We calculated the sex-specific cumulative risk of type 2 diabetes using the Practical Incidence Estimator macro, which was created to produce several estimates of disease incidence for prospective cohort studies based on a modified Kaplan-Meier method.

Results: During 274,349 person-years of follow-up, 3,587 individuals (3,339 men and 248 women) developed type 2 diabetes. The cumulative risk was 34.7% (95% confidence interval, 33.1–36.3%) for men and 18.6% (95% confidence interval, 15.5–21.7%) for women. In BMI-stratified analysis, obese (BMI ≥30 kg/m2) and overweight (BMI 25–29.9 kg/m2) men and women had a much higher cumulative risk of type 2 diabetes (obese: 77.3% for men and 64.8% for women; overweight: 49.1% and 35.7%, respectively) than those with BMI <25 kg/m2 (26.2% and 13.4% for men and women, respectively).

Conclusions: The present data highlight the public health burden of type 2 diabetes in the working population. There is a need for effective programs for weight management and type 2 diabetes screening, especially for young obese employees, to prevent or delay the development of type 2 diabetes.

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© 2018 Huanhuan Hu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.