Abstract
The number of visitors to national parks has decreased due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on 34 national parks in Japan and to discuss the policy implications. We conducted surveys on recreation demand of national parks and collected data on visits before and after the pandemic. We estimated the impact of COVID-19 using a multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model. The results are as follows. First, the number of visitors of elderly people at high risk of serious illness has decreased among the pandemic. In contrast, the number of visits to natural-type national parks with low risk of infection has not decreased. Second, travel subsidies of the Japanese government were insufficient to compensate the impact of COVID-19. Additional travel subsidies of at least ￥2,000 per visit are required for the full compensation of the impact. Third, the results showed that the deregulation of vehicle restrictions could improve visitation level in the national parks with vehicle regulation. However, it could decrease the number of visits in parks without vehicle restrictions.
