Abstract
This study aims to clarify the supply and demand structure of domestic coniferous sawnwood by estimating a supply and demand model for the period from January 2016 to December 2023. We employed a static model to analyze the long-term relationship between variables and an error correction model to analyze the short-term adjustment process. These models were estimated using three-stage least squares. The results suggest that, in terms of the supply and demand structure for sawnwood, the capital investment in domestic sawmill industry, including finishing processes, has improved the supply capacity of domestic coniferous sawnwood in recent years. On the demand side, there is a weak substitution relationship between domestic coniferous sawnwood and structural glued laminated timber, suggesting that the markets for these products might be partially differentiated. In terms of the factors affecting fluctuations in the supply and demand for sawnwood and its prices, we showed that the sawnwood price is more sensitive to changes in exogenous variables than the supply and demand for sawnwood, and that while the sawnwood price is affected by various factors, production adjustments by sawmills are relatively effective in stabilizing the sawnwood price.
