2018 年 22 巻 2 号 p. 47-53
This study aimed to evaluate the effect of climate change on the potential site productivity of sugi (Cryptomeria japonica)-planted forests in Kyushu Island. In this study, potential site productivity was defined as the simulated 10-year average of net primary production by using the carbon balance-based stand growth model. The spatial unit was a 1-km grid, which had the same as resolution as the climate data, and 15-year-old sugi-planted forests were virtually established in each 1-km grid in the Kyushu Island. Maps of site productivity estimated using current and future climatic data were obtained and compared to generate a map of sugi site productivity change. The average difference between the estimated current and future potential site productivity was −2.61, and the potential site productivity in 87% of the land area of Kyushu Island and of sugi-planted forests was estimated to decrease with future climatic changes. The increase of respiration rate with an increase in temperature was the main factor for the decrease in the potential site productivity of sugi-planted forests.
