Evaluation of CO₂ Emission Impact by Electricity Market Deregulation and Massive Introduction of Renewable Energy

Abstract

This paper evaluates CO₂ emission increase after the deregulation of Japanese electricity whole sale market in 2016 and considers how to introduce massive renewable energy in order to reduce CO₂ emission. A great amount of coal power plants’ construction is planned in Japan not only by newly entering power providers but also by existing providers because of its low cost and a halt of nuclear generators after Fukushima disaster. Therefore, CO₂ emissions in Japan will increase after 2016 by those generators. We built the optimal power generation mix model considering recently released construction plans, and estimated the increase of CO₂ emission. Calculated results shows that CO₂ emissions increase around 10% after the deregulation. In addition to it, we calculated the optimal mix of a battery introduction and a capacity expansion of inter-regional transmission line in terms of costs, developing another optimal power mix model which reflects the variability of renewables. The result shows that by the battery price plummeting, the capacity expansion of transmission line connecting Hokkaido region and Tohoku region will become cost-efficient, and that will make it possible for Japan to use the renewable energy introduction potential in Hokkaido region efficiently.