2017 Volume 96 Issue 5 Pages 128-138
In Japan, energy and natural resources are imported by the maritime transport. It is, therefore, necessary to consider both procurement of overseas energy resources and risk management of resource transportation under the situation where international geopolitical structure faces a big change. In this paper, we consider both country risk and transportation risk including chokepoint risk and marine peril. In this analysis, we evaluate risks using two mathematical models. The objective of the former model is minimization of a country risk using portfolio theory. The objective of the latter model is minimization of a transportation risk using binomial distribution. We use import experience calculated by ship movement database and sea lane network as input data. Using mathematical programming solver, we show that there are export countries and transportation which make both country risk and transportation risk decrease without additional transport cost.
