2014 Volume 65 Issue 3 Pages 201-210
In order to properly manage risks concerning a project, possible risk events which can affect the project's performance should be enumerated as thoroughly as possible in the first place. Thus, this paper proposes and experimentally evaluates a diversifying Delphi method for supporting a group of people to enumerate possible risk events relevant to a project of concern. Instead of facilitating consensus building among the participants, the proposed Delphi method encourages them to diversify their ideas. It brings about this effect by feeding back the participants, after each Delphi round, several maps or matrices on which the ideas already raised are spatially located. The performance of the proposed method is investigated through experiments, where student participants are engaged in the task of enumerating risk events concerning a couple of projects which are familiar to them. As a result, it is confirmed that the proposed method actually provides a higher stimulus effect and leads to a higher number and variety of risk events than the control condition where a simple list of ideas already raised is used as the feedback information.
