Trip Distribution Modeling in Tokyo Bay Based on AIS Data

Abstract

In traffic modeling, a model is often assembled to simulate vessel streams within a designated traffic analysis zone, hereafter referred to as TAZ, such as harbors and straits. The traffic model usually consists of sub-models concerned respectively with traffic generation, and trip distribution.
In this paper, the underlying behavior and distribution of ships navigating from an Origin TAZ to a Destination TAZ are analyzed to assess the parameters behind the destination attribution based on the amount of the generated traffic at the origin. Then, the uncertainty associated and randomness with the traffic movements is estimated based on the concept of Entropy.
The results of this work provides an effective tool for evaluating the distribution of vessel traffic streams loads and appraising the level of disorder caused in Tokyo Bay. Furthermore, the model formalizes the trip distribution into a matrix that can be used as a metric for traffic generation and evaluating the fluctuation in traffic and/or TAZ traffic load assignment. Nevertheless, further research is needed to assess the traffic within the same TAZ by breaking-down every TAZ into Sub-TAZs.