Verification of Ocean Wind Forecasts from Global Numerical Prediction Models in the Middle-East and North Pacific Routes

Abstract

In this study, accuracy and characteristics of three global numerical weather prediction models, JMA-GSM, NCEP-GFS and ECMWF-IFS, were verified in the Middle-East and North Pacific Route. Because of very few in situ observations and heterogeneity of ship observations in both routes, wind observations from the QuikSCAT satellite were used for verification. We found two general tendencies of global numerical prediction models; 1) long range forecasts are not accurate in the North Pacific route, and 2) forecasts become especially accurate for a specific season in the Middle-East route. As the result of model intercomparison, it is found that wind forecasts from ECMWF-IFS are more accurate than JMA-GSM and NCEP-GFS for both all seasons and most areas in these routes. Although ECMWF-IFS forecasts are better than others in strong wind cases, it tend to underestimate observed wind speeds slightly.