An evacuation model incorporating cognitive dissonance

: Introduction of psychological elements to evacuation simulating

Abstract

Many evacuation simulation models have been developed. However, all the models exogenously set the rate of evacuation and the evacuation route which are inherently determined by residents. With the exogenous settings, these models can not follow the change in the residents' behavior according to changes in policies. Therefore, it is necessary to model residents who evacuate based on their individual rationality. And now, it is known in particular that residents will not evacuate by some psychological factors (e.g. cognitive dissonance).This paper, focusing on cognitive dissonance as psychological factors, constructs an evacuation model incorporating individual rationality and cognitive dissonance. As a result, we show the effects of cognitive dissonance on the residents' evacuation.