Identification of Spacio/Temporal Patterns of Earthquake Occurrence Based on a Historical Earthquake Disaster Archive

Abstract

This study examined the spacio/temporal patterns of devastating earthquake disaster in relation to the Nankai, Tonankai, and Tokai earthquakes. Based on the archive of 246 records of historical devastating earthquake disasters which occurred between 679 AD and 2001 AD, the damage pattern of 47 prefectures were analyzed by means of cluster analysis so that it was identifed 1)the area where the damage due to the Nankai earthquake is expected, and 2) the area where the risk of near-field earthquake is increasing for the next 30 years.