Risk management is an effective approach in estimation of losses related to rainfall induced slope damage. In addition to the average evaluation for determining losses, quantitative evaluation of variations accompanying the damage is very important in the decision-making process to reduce damage. The study presents a systematic methodology by applying the Monte Carlo Simulation for evaluation of variations in monetary losses caused by rainfall induced slope damage. Evaluation of variations due to individual factors are further tested with the Monte Carlo Simulation so as to give overall variations.

We here study rock fall phenomena based on the behavior of a rigid body under many earthquake excitanons. The states and the transition condinons of 2D rigid body with a wall are defined and the formulations of the motion are constructed. An effect of the wall on the overtunig of the rigid body is investigated by changing the input ground motion. To simulate the rock fall phenomena, the floor length is constrained to the same length as the rigid body. Finally, we proposed a criteria between the peak acceleration of input ground motion and the static seismc coefficient. It would be a useful tool to design the seismic coefficient from the peak ground motion at the site that has a potential to sustain earthquake-induced rackfall damage.

During a large-scale disaster, shelters in stricken area have responsible to secure sufferer's health and living. However, responsibnities of municipalities in the stricken area used to be deteriorated and they should not be able to take care of all of shelters. So, the community response are looking forward to response in shelter management based on lessons learned from the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster. In this study, we propose an assessment method of the community response capacity for the shelter management. The assessment method include both of sufferers capacities and acceptability of shelters through a questionnaire survey for experts.

In a current evacuation master plan, the residents should start evacuation immediately when an evacuation warning to avoid an earthquake fire is requested. However, if a fire occures, while non-inflammablization movement of the city has been progressed, it would advance very slowly unitil the danger will get close before the eye. If there be such a time lug between the evacuation of the danger, residents will be able to take actions, such as to rescue for the buried people, to fight fire, and to secure people. In this study, we developed an algorithm for calculating the time when to start evacuation by using GIS system. This study will show the following results. 1)the latest time to start evacuation, 2)safety evacuation route.

This paper describes applying the FNN (fuzzy-neural network)model concerning travel demand on evacuee-trip production at the aggregate level at the beginning of the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake and compares it with functional models. The FNN model has been evaluated with good fitness upon application to travel demand: The determination coefficient of the FNN model and the functional models are 0.75 and less than 0.40,respectively. Furthermore, the FNN model demonstrates that the average number of family members, the difficulties in acquiring information, and the rate of collapsed buildings and / or houses are the major factors influencing the generation of travel demand of evacuee-trip production at the aggregate level.

From the lessons of the 1995 Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster that initial response was delayed,government organizations have established disaster response support system using computer network for collecting damage data. However,a disaster response is continuous problem solving or decision-making,which needs various kinds of information not only damage situation. This paper proposes the appropriate disaster response support system and the concept design of a disaster response simulator.

When a big earthquake strikes a city, a number of fires probably occurs at the same time. In this case, a lot of fire companies simultaneously make fire fighting all over the city. An estimation of effectiveness of the fire fighting activities is helpful to taking measures to mitigate the forthcoming earthquake disaster. These fire fighting activities are under operation of fire companies, and integrated into a complex system. In this study, we developed the computer system that simulate the dynamic aspects of fire fighting activies including operation of fire companies. This simulator enables us to estimate effectivenss of fire fighting activities during an earthquake disaster along timeaxis, and gives us information about effective way of operation of fire companies.

This research aims to assess the estimated evacuees' behaviors by multi agent based simulation model. Considering the diversity of individual behavior, we define the different properties and probabilities as functions of agents.Thinking about real mass escaping,instead of uniform informational process,it is necessary to simulate the communication and informational interaction which lead to individual's decision making in each dynamic sense.

It is a self-evident desideratum for any safety project that the overall performance of the project should be rated in terms of not only the attained level of safety but also the incurred cost. Cost Benefit Analysis(CBA)is an well established methodological framework for quantitative project evaluation. CBA is commonly applied in construction projects but seldom used for a project in operating and maintained systems. This paper demonstrates the use of CBA in such a project taking a seismic warning system for an urban railway network as an actuality case.

Streets have various functions even from the disaster protection point of view.It is important to understand their functions in order to plan aseismic urban street network systems. In this study pattern models are graphically constituted with district level and urban level, and are examined with the traffic performance in each level. By comparing each pattern model with the others, we can indicate an efficient and aseismic street network.

In the present research,we analyzed the relationship between the characteristics of electric power demand and the regional human activities in non-disaster time. The power demand analysis method that we developed is applied to the different urban areas and years for examination of the effectiveness. This model is based on the power load curve expressed as the accumulation of the electric demand composition equipments. The model result has good agreement with the original load curve. After the discussion on the applicable area size and the accuracy of the present model, we concluded that the present model can be applied,at least, for evaluating power distribution line area.

The present paper deals with earthquake damage to residential lands. Althogh a failure of residential lands induced damage to houses and buildings extensively, it has not been paid attention well so far. The authors have investigated the damage to residential lands after the 1995 Hyogoken-Nambu earthquake. The analysis of damage to residential lands in the 2001 Geiyo and the 1995 Hyogoken-Nambu earthquakes in Japan and the 1999 Quindio earthquake in Colombia was conducted by using old edition topographical maps in various eras.

The present study intended to improve estimation by adopting "threshold''concept. Earthquake damage threshold in the shaking intensity(measured in terms of JMA Scale)produces either building damage or casualties. Based on the data on strong shaking intensity and damage obtained at the 2001 Geiyo Earthquake, it was found that the threshold for minor building damage is 3.1 JMA Scale, half building damage 4.1, minor injury 3.7, and severe injury 4.3．

This study examined the spacio/temporal patterns of devastating earthquake disaster in relation to the Nankai, Tonankai, and Tokai earthquakes. Based on the archive of 246 records of historical devastating earthquake disasters which occurred between 679 AD and 2001 AD, the damage pattern of 47 prefectures were analyzed by means of cluster analysis so that it was identifed 1)the area where the damage due to the Nankai earthquake is expected, and 2) the area where the risk of near-field earthquake is increasing for the next 30 years.

This paper describes the changes of evalution of residents' lives and estimation of reconsruction in the 1993 Hokkaido Nansei-oki Earthquake. Twice questionnaire surveys on residents of Okushiri-town were carried out 4 and 7 years after the 1993 Hokkaido Nansei-oki Earthquake. Factors of Official service were estimated as satisfied factors by the victims at both investigations. Life reconstruction especially money-related factors were estimated high dissatisfied factors. The highest dissatisfied factor was the distribution of contribution. The factor increased the degree of dissatisfaction in 2000 compare to the one in 1997

This paper discusses damages and recovery status in Duzce city, which was severely damaged by the 1999 Turkey Earthquakes. For learning the lessons from the two earthquakes, it is necessary to make an integated analysis of the first(Augast 17th)and the second(November 12th)earthquakes damages. Originally, the buildings damages data sets of the two earthquakes were separately handled for administrative purposes only, but they are sorted and stored in spatial-temporal GIS (DiMSIS)for the integrated analysis. Also, refuge patterns data after the two earthquakes are obtained by questionnaires, and they are analyzed to investigate how many damage levels and number of stories affected on their refuge and residential patterns. Finally recovery policies are examined based on the results.

This investigation study aims at accumulating data on emergency responses in municipal governments by earthquakes, and at characterizing those in terms of seismic intensity and other influential factors. To do this, a questionnaire survey was made to all the municipalities where the 2000 Tottoriken-seibu Earthquake attacked, and a comparative study was additionally made with 3 earthquakes in recent decades. This study is situated as a part of preparatory works for designing of "optimal emergency responses by municipality" under given seismic intensity with variety of environs.

The wooden housing damage due to the 2000 Tottori-ken Seibu Earthquake was analyzed using the damage survey data investigated by Yonago City. It was clarified that the actual housing damage ratios are lower than estimated results based on simulated peak ground velocity and fragility curves that were derived from the data of the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu Earthquake. Damage mode , which is combination of roof ,wall, and structure damage ratios and tilting levels, were calculated for each topographically classifed area, and its regional trend was revealed.

Seismic monitoring systems and satellite remote sensing are promising measures for rapid assessment of seismic damage distribution. To make the best of both information, considering the trade-off of promptness, precision and spatial resolution, a Bayesian method to synthesize seismic intensity distribution and remote sensing image has been proposed for post-earthquake early detection of building damage areas. Damage probability estimated by use of seismic intensity distribution and fragility relations serves as a prior information for Bayesian updating procedure. The satelite SAR intensity image is then incorporated to update the initial estimation, providing more reliable estimation of damage distribution.

We propose a method to identify metropolitan area cluster which could be a reasonable unit to prepare and response against future earthquake disaster. A method to estimate the distribution of population and number of buildings in 1Km-mesh using DMSP/OLS (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/ Optical Linescan System) night-time imagery which capture city lights reflecting extent of human activity is also proposed and its application limit is examined.

Recently, many local governments develop the computer system for disaster prevention in the IT(Information Technology)revolution.Their main purpose is to collect real seismic damage from the disaster area quickly (within 30 min). But almost their systems cannot work. Then this study proposes the system of collecting real seismic damage using GPS (Global Positioning System)cellular phone. Many sufferers report information of real damage (collapsed house, fire, traffic obstacle…)with GPS cellular phone from the disaster area, and the center receive information and output urban seismic damage maps quickly. In this study, it's made out a prototype of the system and explained a way of using output maps on GIS(Geographic Information System).

Building damage assessment for issuing Victim Certificate influenced most of the livelihood rebuilding of victims in the long term following the 1995 Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster.Simulation system for building damage assessment using photographic image data was developed in order to construct a damage assessment training system. The validity of this system was checked according to 1)the classification method of building damage pattern,2)the damage assessment method developed by national government,and 3) the damage assessment method developed by local government.

A building inventory is important not only for building damage estimation due to earthquakes,but also for earthquake disaster management planning"The study on earthquake disaster mitigation in the Kathmandu Valley (JICA,2002)"was conducted to evaluate building vulnerability to strong earthquakes.However,until then,only partial databases on the existing buildings in the Valley have been prepared.A questionnaire format was newly developed.69 sample areas were selected by the stratification multistage extraction method,and 1,183 buildings (0.4% of the Valley)were surveyed.Their results provided the outline of natures and characteristics in the Valley,and then,they were utilized to the damage assessment as well as the earthquake disaster management planning.

During"The study on earthquake disaster mitigation in the Kathmandu Valley(JICA,2002)",in order to establish the disaster mitigation plan,hazard and damage analysis were conducted.The building damage due to both the three scenario earthquakes and the 1934 earthquake were estimated.In the analyses,building inventory database,vulnerability function for each structural type were developed.The results provided the actual image of miserable disasters and necessity of measures against them.Then,several proposals for improvement of the earthquake-resisting capacity in the Kathmandu Valley were issued.

At the urban earthquake,there is a possibility that the difficulty of going home people who is forced to stay in the CBD of Tokyo should be generated. In this study,the Ginza district of Tokyo as a case,we verify the indoor remaining and stay possibility,after considering the space of facilities and the number of remaining and stay people who are estimated,Furthermore,we have aimed to conduct the difficulty of going home people measures in CBD during an urban earthquake disaster.

We have been developing an information system for supporting fire-fighting activities.This system can collect and transmit immediately actual disaster information to headquarters,and transmit the useful information to fire brigades in a large-scale disaster.Wireless LAN and FiReCos;that we developed are installed in this information system as a unique communication network.For making practicable,we constructed a network with several wireless LAN units and carried out field communication tests.The conclusions are as follows;(1)Voice and data communication can be done via six wireless LAN units.(2)Spanning tree technology can evade network trouble in a network constructed with wireless LAN units.(3)A roaming of FH type wireless LAN is effective in radio communication.

In this paper,we discuss the relation between distribution of buildings and prevention from fire spread in urban district. Therefore,we measu Black the number of buildings burnt down using the model of the distribution of buildings. Even though it is equivalent in value of Fireproof Area Rate,if the pattern of distribution is different,there are variations of the number of buildings burnt down. From the viewpoint of the prevention from fire spread,it is important for urban improvement plan not to raise Fireproof Area Rate how to control the distribution of buildings and vacancy.

While we pay attention to the role of NGO/NPO activities,their capacities are still quite limited in Japan.Intermediary support organization is expected to support these activities.In this regard,"National Alliance for Post-Earthquake Reconstruction'' in Taiwan could be a replica to research the role.The National Alliance,as an intermediary support organization,has some characteristics such as coordination,professional group,social confidence and empowerment. The significance and characteristics of the National Alliance is analyzed here to reflect on the role of intermediary support organization in Japan.

This paper presents the disaster process analysis for the September 11,2001 New York World Trade Center disaster utilizing disaster ethnography.Based on the interview survey for the victims and affected enterprises to the disaster,the disaster ethnography is developed.Analyzing the disaster ethnography,the disaster process from the victim's view point is identified.Comparing such disaster process with the past events,the lessons learned from the disaster are identified.

On September 30,1999,a nuclear criticality accident occurred at theTokai uranium processing facility of the J.C.O.Co,Ltd(JCO)at Tokai-mura,Japan.Then,the local authorities conducted evacuation and sheltering in houses for inhabitants.Questionnaire surveys on inhabitants were conducted to know when,where and how the inhabitants came in contact with the information on the protective actions and how they responded.The results of the surveys are as follows;About 60 percent of inhabitants in the JCO's neighborhood came to know the evacuation recommendation by the information communication tool of the local authority.About 70 percent of inhabitants who evacuated used private cars to evacuate.

This study aims to clarify the unique local housing reconstruction public subsidy systems which were developped after the 2000 Tottoriken-Seibu Earthquake. An interview survey was conducted on the affected local governments in Tottori Prefecture and local builders' offices.Then questionnaires were sent out on residents who got the public subsidies for rebuilding or repairing their damaged houses.As a result following issues were pointed out; #1 The deadlines for application and getting the subsidy were too tight for residents to finish all reconstruction work. #2 The subsidy procedures were complicated for residents with less information．#3 There were some differences between city or town governments in application rules and subsidy standards.

Retrofitting of existing houses is the most urgent problem in earthquake disaster reduction measures in Japan. It is clear that some of the existing houses,which remain without being reinforced,despite the low earthquake-resistance,will suffer greatly aduring the coming earthquakes. Shizuoka Prefecture started the financial support system for retrofitting of existing wooden houses from April in 2002.Retrofitting of houses gives not only the safety for house owners but also reduction in governmental expenses after an earthquake such as the cost of demolishing and temporary housing.We evaluated the influence on governmental expenses by the financial support system for retrofitting of existing weaker houses based on cost-benefit and suggested more effective system.

The mitigation of casualties from the earthquakes are one of the most important topics in the prevention countermeasure.The casualty relats to building damages.However,not only that but also other many factors such as time,human characteristics,regional characteristics and rescue influences.It is necessary to clarify the effect of each of them.In this research,the regional characteristics about the rescue activities from a wooden collapsed house was clarified.And the estimated intensity map shows that the most dangerous zone is located in east.The final subject of this study is to clarify relation between"the time''and"the probability of survival'',and arrange the rescue tools effectively as the prevention countermeasure.

For putting efficient disaster countermeasures into practice,people who plan disaster countermeasures should imagine real situation in disaster Clearly. However,people have a limitaton of imagining generally.So,we should provide information such that people can imagine real situation in disaster and prepare the system so that they can accumulate and share lessons learned from analyzing information about past disasters.However,under present conditions,not only reconnaissance reports on past disasters but compilations of lessons learned from reconnaissance reports don't have a good format. In this study,we propose a disaster information database in a new format which helps people to accumulate and share information about past disasters to implement proper measures.

This study focused on disaster management manuals presented in the regional disaster management plan of Kobe city.Through modeling those manuals by integration definition for function modeling,IDEF0,the aim is to broach IDEF0 as an analysis method of disaster management manuals. Taking account of the importance of establishing logistics operation in disasters,4 manuals related to information flow,one of the most fnudamental tasks in logistics,were selected as the main objects. Results showed 1)that IDEF0 is an useful tool to describe the emergency plan, and 2)that local administators can identify the missing links among the emergency plans at different departments by integrating the manuals written in IDEF0.

Through the experiences of Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, it has been found important that the information system to be uses in an emergency should have continuity between normal times and emergency in the local government. In this paper we discuss the development of information system for answering work in local governments. First we analyze the work of normal times and emergency in Machidukuri-suishin section of Nagata Ward Office, Kobe city, which is supposed to answer the questions asked by the inhabitants. Then we develop the information system for its section and make an orignal manual used in both times. Finaly a test is done by the officials of local governments to evaluate its efficiency.

This study is an analysis based on hearing survey of the household including the seriously injured in the Great Hanshin Earthquake Disaster. This survey has made possible to analyze slight injury, moderate injury and unwounded which had been unknown until this study, besides dead and serious injury. It is clarified that life style affects their injuly and how toppling fumiture causes casualty. There were clear differences in the casualty ratio depending on the floor where the victim at the time of the quake(first vs. second floor), the cause of casualty and other details.

This paper examined the organizational management processes taken by the Hyogo prefecture government during disaster response and recovery periods following the 1995 Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster. A special attention was given to represent the acquisition and allocation of human resources at the initiation phase of each new program at the entire period of post-disaster operations. We found 1) that many different ways of securing enough number of human resources were adopted at different time phase following the disaster, and 2)that unexpectedly small number of human resources were allocated for managing disaster recovery process.

Time series analysis of household economy data covering an 1-year-period from 1989 to 1999 in Kobe severely damaged in the 1995 Hyogo-ken-nanbu, Japan, earthquake was carried out. Data were collected from the annual reports of the Family Income and Expenditure Survey published by the Statistics Bureau of Japan. We identified several income and outgo items that showed statistically significant changes between pre-earthquake six years, 1989-1994, and 1995. Also, we estimated earthquake-related extra expenditure paid by households with three different levels of housing damage of demolition, repair, and no-damage. An estimate of extra payments paid by house holds for purchasing or constructing new housing was obtained at 30 million Japanese yen.

This paper examined the budget allocation and management processes taken by the Hyogo prefecture government during disaster response and recovery periods following the 1995 Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster. A special attention was given to represent the relationships between budget allocation and recovery disaster projects at the entire period of post-disaster operations. We confirmed 1) the budget management for recovery disaster projects and normal projects, and 2)the feature of budget allocation of some recovery disaster projects having different property and resources.

This paper provides an approach for recovery process estimation using analysis of local public finance. Originally，the analysis of local public finance is used for policymaking of municipalities using various annual financial statistics. We considered that the application of this methodology to recovery process estimation in terms of tinance is very useful. As a result, it is cralified this approach can detect recovery process after Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster. And it is found that three recovery patterns were emerged: 1) recovered, 2) ambiguous, 3) not recovered.

It is needed a lot of budget, human power, and time to make a local plan for disaster prevention. In this study, a planning process of municipal plan for disaster prevention for small-scale local government corresponding to the damage characteristics of its area is proposed. It contains analyzing the damage characteristics based on existing data sets and damage estimation that are gathered easily as the first step, and considering the systematical countermeasure in the area with a matrix as the second. Besides, a questionnaire survey to officers of a local government was conducted and the effect of the proposal is verified.

Many kinds of comuputer information system for support of disaster resposes have been developd and proposed. These systems were designed for an urban disaster by introducing many functions such as a processor of damge estimation, a dispay by using GIS and examples of emergency resposes by knowkege database. However, the system is too complex and high costs to introduce to a small local government. therefore, we developed a simple and compact support system of disaster responses for small govemments.This paper presents outline of development and functions of the system and results of its evaluation.

The aim of this paper is to develop measuring methods of sufficiency of urban parks after from the viewpoint of earthquake disaster responses. We took the overview of the usage of urban parks after 1995 Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster and six activities for disaster responses in urban parks were focused. In a case study in Setagaya-ward, which is under the averaged situation of urban parks location in inner Tokyo, we analyzed the location and spatial efficiency of urban parks by GIS technology, mainly methods of buffering and boloney separating. As the result, it is clarified that small parks are sufficient for community bases of service supply to suffered local people, but the shortage of large parks make regional evacuation activities insufficient in Setagaya. Our GIS methods are effective for measuring sufficiency of urban parks for disaster responses.