Abstract
It is important to evaluate whether the ship can arrive on time by using the weather routing (WR hereafter) in order to discuss the impact of the use of WR against the maritime industry. Not only the reduction of the mean time of the navigation (i.e. how fast the ship can get to the destination) but also the reduction of the variance (i.e. how precise the ship can arrive) should we consider. In this research, we simulated and analyzed the large amount of navigation data, and examined the shape of the distribution of it. We demonstrated that we can decrease the variance of the navigation hours by adopting the WR. Along with the precise arrival of the ships, (i) we can reduce the delay risk against the same estimated time to arrival, (ii) we can have enough time for shipping, and (iii) we can decrease the offshore waiting time. We have evaluated these results quantitatively.
