Abstract
Transpacific trade grows 10% per year and shipping companies have to consider the introduction of new transportation systems to adapt to this rapidly changing business environment. The changes of the freight flow and the competitiveness of the new business are major concerns when the new transportation system is introduced. Therefore, in this paper, we establish a discrete simulation model that the cargoes' choice of transportation route is expressed in logit model to evaluate the effect of new transportation system. The parameters of the model are estimated by the PIERS data of August 1999. The simulation result is compared with the PIERS data and it is shown that our model reproduces the real situation of freight flow well. The case that the new liner connects nonstop from Hong Kong to Los Angeles / Long Beach in the shortest time is discussed, and our simulation model proves that new service is competitive.
