Uncertainty Analysis Method for Estimating Wave Parameters Based on Ship Responses (1st Report-Influence of the Ship Speed and Uncertainty in the measurement data)

Abstract

　The main purpose of this paper is to develop a new intrusive method to replace the traditional non-intrusive methods, such as Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). By using the proposed method, the estimation of the stochastic response surface does not require time consuming multiple simulations, but the uncertainties in wave parameter can be estimated by optimizing the stochastic objective function only once. This study discusses the uncertainty in wave parameters estimated by using the present method when both the transfer function and the measurement data contain uncertainties. The validity of the present method is discussed by comparing its results to the results of uncertainty analyses through the MCS in which solutions of the deterministic problems are collected.