GIS による流出油の漁業被害予測モデル

－明石海峡油流出事故での検証－

抄録

There are abundant fisheries resources around the Japanese coast and the fishery is one of the important industries in Japan.When an accidental oil spill occurs on the sea, it is important to get the understanding and cooperation from the fishermen atdamaged area for the recovery of spilled oil. In order to treat spilled oil, the risk assessment from the viewpoint of fisheries damage is needed.The prediction model of fisheries damage due to oil pollution has been developed to predict a loss of catch at damaged areas on Geographic Information System (GIS). This model calculates the distribution of spilled oil and oil concentration, and predicts loss of catch at damaged areas where the oil concentration exceeds the effect concentration rate of marine organisms by using fisheries database. It should be noted that the oil concentration is the assessment index in this model. There had been no assessment method to predict the fisheries damage due to oil pollution using the model of oil spill movement and fate in Japan. Further, the fisheries damage due to actual oil spill accident at the Akashi Channel in March, 2008 is predicted to verify its validity by using this model. The comparison between the actual fisheries damage and estimated result gives a quite good agreement using the oil spill simulation model (OILMAP) which is widely used in the world.