座礁・衝突における人間信頼性に関する研究

抄録

Human elements in marine affairs have been discussed in IMO MSC/MEPC, and IMO have intended to introduce the human elements into FSA (Formal Safety Assessment) of future probabilistic rules assessment.
The human in marine is a complex multi-dimentional issue that is affected by three complex systems of human activities, ship apparatuses and misterious marine environments.
To get the solution of the human in marine seems far away from knowledges now. This is out of the range of ergonomics or man-machine interface problems.
The aim of this paper is to get a clue of the solution of the problem. The author investigated human actions in grounding and collision accidents based on the materials of marine accidents inquiry. By the investigation, probabilities of human actions affecting the accidents are summarized in a part of reliability data seas.
To get a more theoretical assessment of human actions, the author figured out a way to introduce the human elements to probabilistic safety assessments of grounding and collision accidents. In the assessments, human actions are treated by clausal form logic equations to introduce human actions, that is described by words in the inquiry materials, into reliability analyses for structures and environments. By this, human elements can be treated in a same ring as structure and environment problems.
The reliability assessments in this paper are based on simple normal distributions with a certain measure of a proof.