Estimation of surge capacity during earthquake disasters and business continuity plans in disaster base hospitals for disaster management

Abstract

【Purpose】We conducted a cross-sectional study on business continuity plan (BCP) issues for disaster base hospitals based on estimates of surge capacity. 【Methods】The study included hospital BCP assessments, the results of staff questionnaire survey at disaster base hospitals, and damage assumptions in Wakayama Prefecture, assuming triple interlocked great earthquakes (so-called “Sanrendo Jishin”). We estimated the medical supply and demand balance after the earthquakes and discussed the BCP issues. 【Results】The results of the medical supply and demand balance estimation revealed a clear division between medical areas that could and could not meet the medical demand. Although their training plans were generally fulfilled in the BCP, there were weaknesses in the supply systems for food and other staff supplies and in the plan for receiving medical support. 【Discussion】When medical supply is inadequate, it is particularly desirable to enhance the plans for receiving medical support. However, almost all hospitals were inadequate in this area.In areas where many doctors had difficulties commuting to their hospital after a disaster, the content of personnel structures was found to be inadequate. This was considered an issue for the BCP that was developed. 【Conclusion】The balance between medical supply and demand was potentially inadequate in many areas as were the BCP plans for receiving medical support and the efforts to raise disaster awareness among staff.