Conspiracy beliefs about COVID-19 leading to riskier behavior and disapproval of national infection prevention policies: The mediating effects of a disregard for infection risk

Abstract

There are many conspiracy theories about the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Belief in these conspiracy theories may lead people to underestimate the risk of COVID-19 and adopt behaviors that increase their risk of infection. Consequently, they may not support national infection prevention policies. In study 1, we administered a survey in January 2021 and analyzed the data using structural equation modeling (SEM). The results revealed the validity of the following hypothesized model: “Conspiracy beliefs about COVID-19 → disregard for infection risk → individual behavior that increases infection risk and disapproval of national infection prevention policies.” In study 2, a longitudinal survey was disseminated to the respondents of study 1 in January 2022. The results were similar to those obtained with SEM in study 1. Analysis of the longitudinal data based on simultaneous effects and cross-lagged models revealed the following causal relationship: “Conspiracy beliefs about COVID-19 → underestimation of infection risk → infection prevention”. These results suggest that conspiracy beliefs about COVID-19 may have a disruptive effect on governments’ infectious disease control policies.