The Aging Population in the Suburbs of Metropolitan Tokyo

Abstract

This paper examines the mechanism of the aging of the population in the suburbs of Metropolitan Tokyo. Most suburban residents at this time are not greying, but a report based on a recent population projection which used the cohort component method indicates that these districts have a high probability of a rising population ratio of residents aged 65 and over.

Most ages of residents concentrate on particular cohorts, especially on residents who were born in the 1935-1955 period. Thus, an accelerated rise in this ratio is unavoidable as the population ages.

However, second-generation residents of these districts are showing particular patterns of migration.

For example : (1) Second-generation residents move out of their residential districts, and (2) new residents of the same second-generation age move into these districts.

In the suburbs of Metropolitan Tokyo, the residents mainly consist of cohorts born in the 1935-1955 period plus their children, and most of the residential districts belong to migration pattern (1). In the future, most of these districts will be occupied by first-generation residents, so the suburbs are expected to grey with their aging. Therefore, although aging progresses differently from district to district, a long-term perspective indicates that these processes seem more likely to be dominant in greying residential districts.

Already in some districts, those who leave are first-generation residents ; thus it is difficult to maintain the infrastructure these areas require. As a result, empty houses and vacant parking spaces increase due to depopulation. The fear therefore arises that a population decrease will accelerate the frequency of moves to other districts by the residents of these areas.