Transmission of euro area shocks to Central and Eastern European countries. Implications for monetary autonomy problem and business cycles synchronization.

抄録

This paper uses the VAR methodology to analyse the effects of European Central Bank monetary policy shocks and euro area output and inflation shocks on the European Union member states from Central and Eastern Europe. First, we look at the strength of effects of identified euro area monetary policy shocks and compare the influence with the one of the domestic policy shocks. Next, we turn to analysis of output and inflation responses to euro area output and inflation shocks relative to aggregate euro area reaction. We provide implications for each country monetary policy decision process and draw conclusions concerning readiness for euro adoption, both from monetary and real economy point of view.