2023 Volume 23 Issue 1 Pages 22-30
Technologies related to the passenger aircrafts equipped with turbofan engines and carbon fiber composite materials have made remarkable progress. Also, air passengers and freight have been steadily increased. However, due to the effects of the world economy, the number of passenger aircraft orders for aircraft manufacturers has been considerably fluctuated. Large fluctuations in orders make it difficult to manage the supply chain and formulate production plans, and to determine the timing of capital investment. To stabilize the management of aircraft manufacturers and suppliers, it is important to predict the number of passenger aircraft orders to some extent. In this study, by using the Fourier transform, the periodicity of the passenger aircraft ordering trends since 1960 were analyzed. As a result, it was found that the passenger aircraft ordering trends could be simulated, and the periods of the waveform of the ordering trends of passenger aircraft were approximately 8 to 10 years. Further, it was clarified that the waveforms were synchronized with the expansion and recession periods of United States economies.
