抄録
We propose a diffusion analysis model that integrates logistic-curve diffusion model (Bass model) and consumer preference
model based on conjoint analysis. We built a diffusion model for clean energy vehicles (CEV) based on the proposing
framework. The major CEV in Japan today is Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HV). 258 thousand HV have been sold in Japan by
2006FY. As the results of our analysis, in the base case, 700 thousand CEV were estimated to diffuse in 2010 and it has the
effect of reducing CO2 emissions by 660 thousand ton-CO2. The model estimated that 4.0 million CEV diffuse in 2020, 16
million CEV diffuse in 2030, and 37 million CEV diffuse in 2050. We carried out two scenario analyses. In the scenario in
which the subsidy of 250 thousand yen (2 thousand US$) is granted to CEV until 2020, the diffusion increases by 18% in
2020 and 11% in 2030, respectively, compared with the base case. In the scenario in which the gasoline price rises
incrementally up to 4 times until 2050, the diffusion increases by 7% and 11%, respectively.
