抄録
Various evaluations have performed on oil peak forecasting, by confirming oil reserves data, forecast methods, opinions on
reserve growth including non-conventional oil, and new oil field discoveries. However, a holistic overview of the oil peak
forecast using statistical analysis, including the regression analysis method, would perhaps provide a new perspective from
which to evaluate and confirm trends in the oil peak forecast. Therefore, this paper aims to clarify the principle factor
contributing to oil peak forecasts by evaluating oil peak forecast studies from this new perspective.
Oil peak year forecasts which predict that innovations in substitute fuels and the oil market force will be the primary
contributing factors appear to have risen linearly, while those which indicate that the decline of world conventional oil
production is the principle factor appear to be converging on the year 2010. The result of this paper evidently confirms that
differing opinions regarding the basic cause of the oil peak have an impact on the oil peak forecasts as they appear in the
trends for oil peak forecast studies.
