Reduction of CO₂ and cost-effectiveness analysis by future technology of Automobile

Abstract

We developed an analytical model for automobile technology assessment, named CEAMAT (Cost and Effectiveness Assessment Model for Automobile Technologies). In this paper, the model was demonstrated in the application of costeffectiveness analysis of the future automobile technologies. Two technology scenarios, frozen and progress, were analyzed using CEAMAT, and the technological progress was evaluated to have substantial impact on CO₂ reduction, -27% compared with technology frozen scenario. However, the average reduction cost was estimated to be -11 to 24 thousands yen/ton-CO₂, which is decreasing yearly from 2010 to 2050. In addition, even in the technology progress scenario, the next generation automobile technologies, like Plug-ins, EVs, or FCVs, were found to remain too expensive to diffuse. If CO₂ should be reduced drastically in the middle to long term, these results imply that integrated approach including not only technological progress but also traffic flow improvement would be required.