抄録
We developed an analytical model for automobile technology assessment, named CEAMAT (Cost and Effectiveness
Assessment Model for Automobile Technologies). In this paper, the model was demonstrated in the application of costeffectiveness
analysis of the future automobile technologies. Two technology scenarios, frozen and progress, were analyzed
using CEAMAT, and the technological progress was evaluated to have substantial impact on CO2 reduction, -27% compared
with technology frozen scenario. However, the average reduction cost was estimated to be -11 to 24 thousands yen/ton-CO2,
which is decreasing yearly from 2010 to 2050. In addition, even in the technology progress scenario, the next generation
automobile technologies, like Plug-ins, EVs, or FCVs, were found to remain too expensive to diffuse. If CO2 should be
reduced drastically in the middle to long term, these results imply that integrated approach including not only technological
progress but also traffic flow improvement would be required.
