抄録
We developed an econometric-type energy demand and supply model based on detailed energy balance tables, and
presented a long-term energy scenario towards a low carbon society in 2050 for Asia and the world.
In Reference Scenario, which yields normative future evolution of energy demand and supply, the world primary energy demand and CO2 emissions in 2050 will represent 1.8-fold and 1.7-fold increase respectively from those in 2007, which shows this is not a sustainable scenario from the viewpoint of both environment and energy security.
In Technologically Advanced Scenario, which assumes that all the countries of the world take technological advanced measures and that accelerated R&D encourages global deployment of advanced technologies, CO2 emissions in 2050 will decrease by 16% from the level of 2005. Even in this scenario, the CO2 reduction is far less than that required to “halve CO2 emission by 2050”, therefore we need to evaluate further possibility of CO2 reduction, through investigating additional technological options.
