Analysis of Japan’s Long-term Energy Supply and Demand up to 2050 and Imported Hydrogen Introduction Scenarios using Integrated Energy-economic Model

Abstract

In this paper the authors estimated long-term hydrogen introduction scenarios in Japan up to 2050, using an integrated energy model which combines an econometric demand model and a bottom-up type technology introduction model, and assuming the introduction of “CO₂-free” imported hydrogen. In the cases that assume ambitious CO₂ emission reduction targets, and set realistic limits for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a massive volume of hydrogen is introduced as a fuel for combined cycle power generation, reducing the marginal CO₂ abatement costs significantly.
In normal cases the use of CO₂-free hydrogen is less cost-effective than the introduction of CCS. It must be noted, however, that CO₂-free hydrogen can gain cost-effectiveness if imported fossil fuel prices become extremely high. In this perspective, the option of introducing CO₂-free hydrogen can be regarded as a measure to reduce the risk of price spikes and/or an alternative measure to reduce CO₂ emissions with the possible limited availability of the CCS technology.