計量経済的手法を用いる太陽光発電の普及対策に関する日中比較分析

抄録

Japan and China are different in many aspects，such as population，resources，administration，growth stage, electricity mix，and carbon emissions．However，both countries are taking effort to transition to low-carbon society. One of those measures is to promote the development of solar power．In this research, we analyzed the current state and mechanism of PV development in both Japan and China by using econometric model. System price, feed-in tariff (FIT), subsidy, transmission grid improvement, etc. were confirmed to be an influence factor of introduction of PV system for both Japan and China. Also, in order to promote the international competitiveness of domestic solar cells, it is indispensable to expand cumulative output.
Simulation analysis was also conducted on future targets formulated by the two countries. As a result, in reference case the tendencies continue as they are, it is predicted that Japan will reach a 130% completion of their objective by 2030, while China will have achieved a 142% by 2020. An effective way to further increase this spread could be found in the reduction of feed-in tariff policies ranges and interest rates, as well as in the increase of carbon taxes in Japan or their introduction in China, respectively.