長期原子力見通しへの影響要因に関する分析

抄録

In this paper, we collected nuclear power generating capacity projections provided by four institutions and analyzed them quantitatively, in the aim of extracting important factors behind them. From the analysis, we can derive the following conclusions: 1) The four outlooks present the same tendency in the changes in nuclear energy capacity projections. 2) Changes in nuclear energy projections exhibit different trends in three successive periods, roughly corresponding to the periods before, during, and after the “nuclear renaissance.” 3) Nuclear projections are susceptible to several factors, either global or region-specific. Two factors were found to be particularly significant: Time trend, which is the proxy for enhancing climate policies, and the economic competitiveness of nuclear power. Although nuclear accidents did affect nuclear projections, the influences seem to be limited from long-term perspectives, considering that the Chernobyl accident affected nuclear projections only for the Former Soviet Union during limited periods, and that the influence of the Fukushima accident seems to have been partially interchangeable with the influences of other factors, such as nuclear cost hikes and decline in fossil fuel prices.