Abstract
In this paper, CO2 emissions from passenger cars for the period between 2010 and 2050 taking cases of Tokyo metropolitan area and Kagawa Prefecture are estimated and the impact factors were analyzed. As a result, CO2 emissions from passenger cars in these two regions were estimated to be reduced for 65 to 70% in 2050 compare to 2010. This reduction was breakdown into following factors; Automobile technologies contribute 42~44% reduction, population change does 10% in Tokyo metropolitan area and 17% in Kagawa prefecture. Impact of urban compaction was estimated only about 4~6%. To achieve the target by Japanese government to reduce 80% of greenhouse gas by 2050, it is discussed that policy measures on urban structure and people’s behavior regarding location and travel have to be enhanced drastically, that will have impact not only on the CO2 emissions but also on the sustainability of public finance of local government and transport infrastructure.
