抄録
A vehicle fleet stock turnover model was developed to study the impact of vehicle automation and powertrain electrification
on light-duty vehicle fleet energy consumption, CO2 emissions and cost in the case of Japan. 24 vehicle types were considered:
four powertrains, internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), battery electric vehicles
(BEVs) and fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles (FCHEVs); using two automation levels, no automation (level 0) and full
automation (Level 5); available for three vehicle size classes, normal, compact and mini-sized vehicles. In the base scenario,
tank to wheel CO2 emissions can be reduced from 110.3 Mt-CO2/year to 53.1 Mt-CO2/year between 2012 and 2050. Diffusion
of BEVs has the largest potential for tank to wheel CO2 emissions reduction, 86.9% compared to the 2050 baseline values; with
a net cash flow of 17.4 Billion USD/year. In contrast, diffusion of FCHEVs can reduce tank to wheel CO2 emissions up to
80.8% by 2050; with a negative cash flow. SDVs diffusion has larger CO2 emissions reductions in ICEV and HEV scenarios
than in BEV and FCHEV scenarios. Capital cost increments due to automation cannot be compensated by energy savings,
causing an increment in the net cash flow.
