Stock Modeling of Aging Change of Building System in Japanese Commercial Building Sector

Abstract

The stock of heating, ventilating, air-conditioning (HVAC) system and water heating system and adopted energy saving measures have significant influences on energy demand of Japanese commercial building stock. This study estimated the composition of the Japanese commercial building stock in terms of the configuration of HVAC system and water heating system and the adoption of energy conservation measures in the year 2013 and 2030. The result implied that the proportion of centralized HVAC systems will decrease, whereas that of electricity-driven decentralized HVAC systems and electricity-driven water heating system and the number of adopted energy conservation measures will increase. Future change in stock of these building system will have a significant impact on energy demand of the Japanese commercial building stock.