中国における新エネルギー自動車普及拡大対策に関する計量経済分析

抄録

In this study, we quantitatively elucidated the diffusion mechanism of China's new energy vehicle (NEV) and conducted a simulation analysis on diffusion measures. We found that the relative total cost, development of charging infrastructure, and NEV sales ratio regulation were factors affecting the spread of NEV. Moreover, as a result of estimating lithium ion battery price using learning curve theory, it was confirmed that the rate of decrease of the price was 18.1% every time the cumulative production volume doubled. As a result of simulation analysis, in the reference scenario, even if all subsidies are abolished from 2023, sales volume will expand steadily due to the introduction of The passenger Cars Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credit Regulation(dual-credit policy), but the target for 2030 cannot be achieved. In order to achieve the target, it is effective to reduce the number of points per NEV and increase the NEV credit ratio. The sales share of passenger NEV in total passenger vehicles is expected to reach 39.5% by 2030, achieving the target.