Analysis of a Spot Energy Market Price using Power Production Simulation Model

Abstract

In Japan, the deregulation of the power sector and the on-going massive deployment of PV and wind are changing and will continue to change the demand and supply structure of the power system. New technologies and institutions are expected to work well in the various whole-sale power market to contribute to the decarbonization of the energy sector. The spot market, or the day-ahead energy market is the major market and we can value each new technology and institution using the spot market price, if they are estimated for the future. In this paper authors propose the Full-max cost in the demand and supply analysis as an estimator of the spot market price. The authors, providing the definition of the Full-max cost, verify the viability of the Full-max cost through the simulation of the historical JEPX spot market price of the fiscal year of 2019.