2050年の電力需給における低炭素化の可能性

抄録

Efforts for de-carbonization has accelerated in Japan. As result, full scale power sector analyses regarding the energy demand and supply structure needed for 2050 in Japan, to reach low-emission scenarios are being published. However, more studies are needed to explore the various possibilities of de-carbonization, including electrification, and mass introduction of CO₂-free generation and production. This paper presents a series of study cases, selected to reflect different deployment scenarios of photovoltaic power, wind and nuclear combined with scenarios of demand response by heat pump water heaters and electric vehicles. The results include future supply structures, generation shares, zero-emission generation surpluses, requirements for dispatchable generation, operational cost, and CO₂ emission of each case studied. From the results, it can be concluded, for example, that 400 GW of PV and 140 GW of wind can be effectively integrated into Japan’s electricity system, yielding a substantial reduction of CO₂ emission from the power sector, near to 42 million tons per year.