電力市場入札価格およびスパイク予測の計算手法について

抄録

After deregulation of electricity market in 2016, the amount of electricity trade is rapidly increasing in Japan, and the importance of accurate analysis on price in JEPX(electricity market in Japan) is increasing. When a large electricity companies bid on the electricity market in Japan, it is common to specify a power source that increases output by selling or a power source that decreases output by buying, and determine the selling/buying price by calculating the break-even price. This price is called as the marginal cost. We introduce a method to accurately calculate the marginal cost for each time frame when pumped storage power generation and thermal power generation, etc. are used for bidding. In addition, we introduce a method that simulates price spikes based on market principles, such as when the volume of buy bid is larger than that of sell bid. We calculated electricity market prices of January 2021, when unusual price spikes occurred, and found that this model reproduce the market price trends to the extent.